Lesson 3: One-time money or ongoing money?

The idea: "and then what?" Sowell's Applied Economics: Thinking Beyond Stage One looks at a policy's later effects, not just the first one Unverified1. "Stage one" is what happens right away. "Stage two" is what happens next. For money, the first question is: is this a one-time amount or does it repeat every year?

The numbers

A big one-time payment. The city's FY2025 audit shows that in FY2025 the city's contributions to its CalPERS pension plans were $5,271,921, against a required $695,659. That is $4,576,262 more than required. The General Fund's share of paying off the unfunded pension debt was $2,817,856 Verified2. This is the plan-wide schedule in the audit, and we did not split it by fund beyond that.

Stage one and stage two. Stage one: the pension debt was paid. Stage two, from the same audit: the General Fund's net reserves fell 33.4% in that year, and staff link that drop to the payoff Verified2. Another stage-two item is in the June 18, 2025 budget plan, which lists the General Fund's share of pension debt payments as frozen for two years, worth $224,178 a year in FY2026 and FY2027 Verified3.

A one-time item in the same plan. The June 18, 2025 plan to close the gap lists several steps. One of them is explicitly one-time: "Anticipated One Time Use of Loss Prevention Rebate Funding" of $105,000 in FY2026 Verified3. In the same report, staff said using savings from vacant positions could balance the budget, but "recognizes this is not a long-term solution" Verified3.

A one-time payment in a pay agreement. The July 2026 amendment to the Miscellaneous Employees Association agreement runs July 1, 2026 to June 30, 2028. In place of a cost-of-living raise, it pays each covered employee a one-time gross payment of $3,000 Verified4.

Our reading (not a verdict): A one-time payment costs once. A raise to base pay costs every year after. Both can be reasonable choices. The question is what happens in the years after the money is spent, for example when the agreement ends on June 30, 2028.

Try it

1. Is this item one-time or does it repeat?
2. If it is one-time, what pays for the same thing next year?
3. If it repeats, where does the money come from each year?

← Lesson 2 · Next: Lesson 4, what a tax promise really costs →

Sources cited on this page

1. Applied Economics: Thinking Beyond Stage One (revised ed., 2008; first edition 2004), Thomas Sowell (Basic Books; unofficial / third-party; accessed 2026-11-09) Publisher's catalog page. We rely on the publisher's description (it says the book examines policies not only by their immediate effects but also by their later repercussions). We have not checked page text and quote nothing from the book. ↗
2. City Council agenda packet, September 16, 2026 (file named "Packet 9.10.26") (City of Williams; official; accessed 2026-10-23) Holds the August 19, 2026 minutes (Resolutions 26-23 to 26-27; Ordinances 278-26 on noise and 279-26 adopted) and the audited financial statements for the year ended June 30, 2025 (General Fund budget-to-actual on PDF page 207; management discussion on PDF pages 149 to 151). Text layer. ↗
3. City Council agenda packet, June 18, 2025 (City of Williams; official; accessed 2026-11-09) Listed on the city's Agenda & Minutes page. Item 5 (PDF page 25) is the staff report "Budgetary Guidance on Resolving Shortfalls in FY2026 and FY2027"; PDF page 27 is the "General Fund Shortfall with Potential Solutions" table. Scanned; pages 25 and 27 read as images. ↗
4. City Council agenda packet, July 15, 2026 (City of Williams; official; accessed 2026-10-23) Holds the June 17, 2026 minutes (Resolutions 26-16 to 26-18; first reading of the ADU Ordinance 278-26). Scanned; read with OCR. Also holds the staff report and resolution for the fire prevention special sales tax petition placed on the Nov 3, 2026 ballot (PDF pages 36 to 45). ↗